NBA free agent rankings: Futures of LeBron, Turner, more stars

NBA free agency won't be the marquee part of this summer's offseason. A series of extensions have taken some of the biggest potential names off the market, including Jimmy Butler III, who extended after being traded to the Golden State Warriors at the deadline.

There are a handful of all-time greats who can become free agents depending on player options, led by LeBron James. But these players, including fellow former MVP James Harden and nine-time All-Star Kyrie Irving, already have made their way to desired destinations and are unlikely to change teams.

The combination of extensions and contract increases outpacing the salary cap's modest growth in recent years also means few teams will have cap space available. As ESPN's Bobby Marks has been tracking, only the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets will have max-level cap space, and it's possible no other team can spend appreciably more than the non-taxpayer midlevel exception (projected at $14 million).

Still, teams will have the ability to fill needs with targeted free agent signings. Last summer, the Detroit Pistons nabbed Malik Beasley on a one-year, $6 million deal and watched him finish second in Sixth Man of the Year voting as part of their playoff return. Just behind Beasley in the voting was Ty Jerome of the Cavaliers, added in free agency for just over the minimum prior to his breakout that was key to Cleveland finishing atop the Eastern Conference. Both players are among a deep group of top-tier reserves or lower-end starters who will define this summer's free agency period, which officially begins June 30 at 6 p.m. ET.

Let's run through my top 25 players, split into tiers based on their status and availability, with a special focus on a handful of key free agents such as Jerome who realistically could be on the move this summer.

Tier 1: All-Stars with options unlikely to move

A player option gives both James and the Lakers financial flexibility this summer. After taking slightly less than the max last offseason to help the Lakers avoid second-apron restrictions, James could re-sign for more by declining his $52.6 million player option. On the flip side, another James discount might allow the Lakers access to their non-taxpayer midlevel exception if they want to target a starting big man. Still an easy All-NBA pick at age 40, James clearly remains the top free agent on the market, having led these rankings in (deep breath) 2010, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 and last year.

The other potential free agent who earned All-NBA honors, Harden also signed a "one plus one" deal last summer with a player option on the second season. He has a chance to increase his salary after signing for considerably less than the max. Harden's player option would pay him $36.3 million. Alternatively, Harden, 35, could decline the option in pursuit of a longer deal with a lower starting salary that would keep him under contract through his late 30s. Either way, Harden seems sure to remain with the Clippers after finding his way home to L.A. and leading an overachieving effort in the regular season.

Irving appeared in line to improve his $43 million player option on a long-term deal before suffering a left ACL tear in March that complicated his immediate future. Given Irving will likely miss the bulk of the 2025-26 regular season, it's possible he could just exercise the player option and revisit negotiations once healthy. Alternatively, the Mavericks might still commit to Irving after general manager Nico Harrison made his paramount importance clear in the wake of the Luka Doncic trade. Before the injury, Irving was playing as well as ever, and at 33, he is a bit younger than the other two All-Stars ahead of him on this list.

After some early growing pains, Randle's strong close to the regular season and his monster first two playoff rounds were key to the Timberwolves returning to the Western Conference finals. Wrapping up an extension he signed with the New York Knicks in 2021, Randle has a $29.5 million player option that he has outperformed. Minnesota and Randle have multiple options for how to handle it. He could decline the option and sign a long-term deal in free agency or exercise it in conjunction with another extension, which would give the Timberwolves more spending power as they deal with two other free agents in my top 25 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid).

Unlike the other players in this tier, VanVleet's option year is at the Rockets' discretion as part of a three-year max deal he signed with Houston two summers ago. Given how well VanVleet has fit with a Rockets team that earned the No. 2 seed in the West, declining the option and letting him walk would make no sense. With the luxury tax becoming a factor, however, Houston might want to replace VanVleet's $44.9 million option with a smaller starting salary on a longer-term contract for the 31-year-old point guard.

Tier 2: Proven starter in his prime

Here's where this year's free agency really comes up short. Turner is arguably the only quality starter available who has never been an All-Star, and he is still in the middle of his career, at age 29. Turner's indispensable role for an Indiana team that has reached the past two conference finals gives him significant leverage as an unrestricted free agent.

"With how the playoffs have gone," a scout said, "he's cemented his place there. They just don't have a replacement for him."

The Pacers will want to be careful with Turner's starting salary. Indiana will enter free agency about $20 million from the projected luxury tax line with 12 players under contract, and Turner should command more than that after making $19.9 million this season.

Possible fits: Turner has featured in trade rumors so long that he has been linked to just about every team in need of a starting center. A sign-and-trade would be complicated for the Warriors and the Lakers, but both franchises are clear fits in the unlikely event the Pacers and Turner can't strike a deal.

Tier 3: Starter-caliber RFAs